Seasoned observers of Northern Ireland politics scarcely believe it to be true. Fire and brimstone preacher Ian Paisley in the same room and talking with Gerry Adams who says that Ian Paisley was the reason he became a republican and terrorism endorser in the first place. In an environment where there have been many false dawns this could actually be the moment when Northern Ireland becomes sane. When I saw terrorist Gerry (‘jelly’) Kelly being interviewed with Ian Paisley Jnr on Newsnight later you began to realise that this might actually be for real. Then interviewer Gavin Essler recalled that the first time he had interviewed Kelly had been in a prison in Holland and you realised how much both sides have had to swallow to get to this point.
One thing that has not changed much in the last thirty years is the cast of characters. I suppose the upside of this is that if you cannot win over the most intransigent then nothing is for real. On the other side of the coin, Ulster politics will need to move on rapidly and it will be interesting to see what the next generation of politicians will do. I think one point that needs underlining is the weakness in Sinn Fein’s position. I personally feel that many south of the border are not really interested in taking on the burden of the Ulster economy with 30% unemployment, a massive state benefit burden and poor infrastructure. Ireland itself (minus the 6 or 9 counties) is an economic success story but is not so powerful that it could absorb Ulster easily. Look at what happened to the German economy after 1989. What is happening is that the Dublin Government is investing in Ulster (the Dublin-Derry motorway for example) and perhaps we might see a gradual absorption over the next fifty years. The tipping point may occur when Catholics form the majority population in Ulster.
I have an emotional interest in all of this because I lived in Portrush, Northern Ireland for three years when I was a student. I remember going, as an observer, to Coleraine to witness a Unionist demonstration against the 1985 Anglo-Irish Agreement. I have never felt so terrified in my life. I don’t suppose I will ever feel again the tension among the 20,000 crowd as Unionist politicians led the ‘no, no, no’ chanting that exploded from everywhere. I spoke not a word so as not reveal my English accent (the irony of being English in a crowd of UK ‘loyalists’) and got away as soon as I could.
Good luck to Northern Ireland.
Music of the day: I played some Davy Spillane (ex of Moving Hearts) in Irish tribute. The ‘Out in the Air’ album which I have not listened to for 10 years.
As a footnote; the thoughts occurs to me that sometimes ‘life’ tells us something. My last two blogs have related to Kosovo and Northern Ireland and my involvement in those places. I am not a destiny type (as anyone who has read my books will know) but perhaps I was always meant to be close to ‘trouble spots’. I wonder if readers notice similar patterns in their own lives?
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When I first went to Northern Ireland (in 1986) it was a surreal place in a macabre way - I'll never forget my first experience of Newry in County Down, British soldiers ducking in and out of shop doorways weaving between shoppers who waddled along regardless with their bags of groceries.
By the time I got married in Derry after the first ceasefire, a few weeks ahead of Big Bill Clinton's visit to the city, Northern Ireland had moved on some, with checkpoints disappearing and an emerging sense of hope.
I remember being on a film shoot for work around that time which took us from Belfast to Liverpool and thinking how much more down-trodden and hopeless was the vibe in the latter.
Your analysis of the Republic's views towards the North at this juncture may well be correct (I've almost never come across strong views in the South regarding re-integrating with the North among everyday people) but I think the biggest challenge to Northern Ireland's prosperity going forwards is the parochial outlook. Confidence and standing in the world go hand in hand with being outward-looking and open. That will be the real test.
Mind you look how the football team has been doing recently - victories against England and Sweden, that new found confidence and effective team-work, may well herald a new age.
Another big issue is the dependence on public money - from my experience of doing business in the North it blunts creativity and enterprise. There's a wealth of talent and entrepreneurial spirit in Northern Ireland and I look forward to seeing it given free rein, unfettered by the pettiness and parochiality of the past.
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